Spain beat Belgium 2-1 in a World Cup match at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, with Mikel Merino scoring the decisive goal in the 88th minute to secure victory after a tense finish.
The match was tight from the outset. The first half finished 1-1: Fabián Ruiz put Spain ahead in the 30th minute, but Belgium equalised shortly before the break when Charles De Ketelaere converted an assist from Timothy Castagne in the 41st minute. The half-time score was therefore 1-1.
Spain opened the scoring in the 30th minute through Fabián Ruiz. Belgium fought back and levelled in the 41st minute when Charles De Ketelaere finished Timothy Castagne’s pass. Two minutes later Pau Cubarsí received a yellow card for Spain, setting a combative, controlled tone to the match.
The second half produced few clear chances and became a tactical battle, with both teams probing without breakthrough until late. Kevin De Bruyne picked up a yellow card in the 85th minute as tensions rose toward the end.
In the 88th minute Mikel Merino completed a prolonged Spanish phase with a composed finish to make it 2-1. The game concluded with more cautions: Aymeric Laporte received a yellow in added time (90+3') and Axel Witsel was booked in 90+5'. Thibaut Courtois was named player of the match with the highest rating (7.9), reflecting his crucial saves and role in keeping Belgium in contention until the late strike.
The result moves Spain closer to their World Cup objectives and sets up a high-profile potential tie with France. For Belgium and coach R. Garcia the defeat underlines a lack of decisive cutting edge up front, despite Courtois’ strong individual showing.
Odds Radar Pro’s AI forecasted a 60% chance of a Spain win before the match. The model highlighted Spain’s defensive solidity, Belgium’s tendency to score late, and concerns around Belgium’s goalkeeping situation as key signals. The AI’s projection matched the market pricing, which also placed Spain at around 60%—a consensus between data-driven prediction and bookmakers.
From a market perspective, the agreement between AI and bookmakers indicates the dominant influence of core data points (form, xG, and neutral venue dynamics). The match underlined how fine margins decide outcomes: a late Merino strike decided a game that could easily have gone either way until the final minutes.
Looking ahead, Spain must maintain defensive discipline and sharpen their attacking rhythm ahead of tougher opposition, while Belgium must find ways to convert promising situations into goals. Coach Luis de la Fuente will prepare Spain for a sterner test, and R. Garcia must translate Thibaut Courtois’ performances into points for Belgium in the next fixtures.
Sources: The New York Times · The Guardian · ESPN
The market gave only 60% to spain win — that’s where the AI saw value.
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